NVAX stock: Novavax has more than quadrupled sales, but the outlook is clouding over

Novavax (NVAX) posted an unexpected third-quarter loss late Tuesday, but NVAX stock rose after hours on better-than-expected selling.


In the September quarter, Novavax lost $2.15 per share, down from a year-ago loss of $4.31 per share. However, analysts had forecast earnings per share of $1.57. Still, shares rose on Novavax’s revenue, which more than quadrupled year over year to $735 million. That easily beat forecasts of $586 million.

The sell-off didn’t extend to Novavax’s full-year guidance, however. The company expects revenue at the low end of its guidance of $2 billion to $2.3 billion.

Whether this can be achieved depends on the demand for his Covid vaccine. Novavax comes from behind. Today, the Covid vaccine is available for children 12 and older in the United States. The Food and Drug Administration first approved the protein-based vaccine in July. To date, fewer than 44,000 people have received it.

A surge in demand could fuel NVAX stock. In after-hours trading, shares were up 5.6% near 20.80.

NVAX Stock: Competing updated boosters

In addition to approval for its original Covid vaccine, Novavax’s booster shot also received the FDA’s blessing in October. But the booster shot is only available to people who haven’t had a booster shot yet Pfizer (PFE), modern (MRNA) or Johnson&Johnson (JNJ).

It’s important to note at this point that Pfizer and Moderna have launched updated Covid boosters targeting omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants. In the US, the latter remains marginally dominant, leading the newer BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 strains.

The Novavax booster shot is a third dose of the original vaccine, targeting the ancestral strain of the virus. This is a bearish point for NVAX stock. In this month’s IBD/TIPP survey, less than a third of respondents said they would look for the Novavax booster shot. Another 42% said they don’t, while 19% are not eligible.

The company is also working on a prototype booster vaccine that will elicit immune responses against the original strain and subvariants BA.1 and BA.5. However, the BA.1 strain is no longer in circulation in the United States.

Investors in NVAX stock will likely be looking for comment on the company’s booster efforts when Novavax reports its third-quarter results late Tuesday.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.


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